NFL’s free agency is less than two weeks away, and we have already seen plenty of big-name quarterbacks moved or mentioned in trade talks around the league since the 2020 season’s end. Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, and Matthew Stafford have all already been traded, all by franchises who drafted them with top-two picks. Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson have also emerged as franchise-leading quarterbacks that could end up moving locations soon as well. The March 17 free agency opening, as well as late April’s NFL draft, will begin to answer questions for even more players and teams this offseason. Many teams could be in the market for a quarterback this offseason. The Jaguars, Jets, Patriots, and Steelers are among the many teams that could host a different-looking quarterback room in the near future, and today I will be piecing together which QB-franchise combinations I see as the most likely heading into the thick of the offseason. I will be taking each team’s individual situations into context, so Trevor Lawrence isn’t slipping to the Jets and the Steelers aren’t able to turn the salary cap off in their Madden settings in order to secure the funds for a veteran who’s expected to command a heavy price tag. Now, let’s see who goes where:
FREE AGENTS
Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys
- Projected Contract: 5 year, $205 million
Dallas lost the stare-down. Dak Prescott proved his value to the Cowboys while he was on the field, looking like he was poised to have his best season yet before missing the season’s final 11 games with an ankle injury. Then, Dallas proceeded to show just how badly they needed Dak for the rest of the year. After starting 2-3 despite Dak helping Dallas’ offense to 153 points between Weeks 2-5, Dallas’ once-explosive offense looked similarly lost without their leader on the field. Jerry Jones will have to pay this man a lot of money very soon.
Mitchell Trubisky – Chicago Bears
- Projected Contract: 3 years, $36 million
Sorry, Bears fans. The Bears’ unfavorable cap situation and lack of draft picks have put them in a position in which they either have to get creative in their methods to acquire Deshaun Watson or Russell Wilson, but also that they don’t have the same assets as other teams have in order to acquire the franchise-altering talents or draft a highly-touted quarterback prospect. While Trubisky might be an unwelcome sight to see after four nondescript years in Chicago, the North Carolina alumnus has quietly improved into a guy that’s going to get starting consideration in not only Chicago, but plenty of quarterback-needy teams. While he has been far from perfect, Trubisky and the Bears have compiled a record of 29-21 in his starts, including a 6-3 record in his 2020 games. With few options available here, Chicago’s best chance might be to continue Trubisky’s development as the starting QB for a few more years.
Jacoby Brissett – New England Patriots
- Projected Contract: 2 years, $16 million
Whether or not the Patriots still value Jarrett Stidham as a prospect worth putting time into developing, this team will need a veteran presence in that QB room. Jacoby Brissett spent some time with Tom Brady and Jimmy Garoppolo after originally being drafted by New England, and the Colts’ 2020 backup quarterback could provide his former team with a competent bridge quarterback in case Stidham or another young quarterback is not yet prepared to take the reigns in 2021. The former N.C. State guy wasn’t consistently playing winning football in his last starting gig, but still posted a solid 18:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Ryan Fitzpatrick – Carolina Panthers
- Projected Contract: 2 years, $15 million
The Panthers are my current favorite to land Deshaun Watson from the Texans. That being said, I don’t think it’s happening before the draft, and teams with plenty of available cap space like the Panthers and Jets could look for bridge quarterbacks in case they can’t win the Watson sweepstakes and instead opt for rookies. Ryan Fitzpatrick has become the poster child for short-term stand-in quarterbacks. After generally outplaying 2020 fifth-overall pick Tua Tagovailoa on the Dolphins and posting the second-highest passer rating of his career, Fitzpatrick’s market is certain to be filled with suitors.
Alex Smith – New York Jets
- Projected Contract: 1 year, $6 million
Alex Smith is going to want to go somewhere that he has a fair chance at seeing the field. While the Jets aren’t likely to take the starting job away from Sam Darnold if he stays, the upcoming fourth-year quarterback would be on a very short leash. Even if a rookie quarterback is taken, Smith might have a chance to land the starting job for a team that will look extremely different in 2021 beyond just the quarterback position.
Andy Dalton – Denver Broncos
- Projected Contract: 1 year, $6 million
Drew Lock didn’t play up to par for the Broncos in 2020. While the Missouri quarterback could very well get another chance to prove himself as that guy for Denver in 2021, it would be best for the team to have a more competent backup quarterback in the wings in case Lock gets hurt or struggles down the stretch again. Andy Dalton wasn’t Dak Prescott for the Cowboys, but his 4-5 starting record and 87 passer rating in 2020 is a certain improvement over a tough 2019 campaign. This pairing feels good for both sides.
Cam Newton – Washington Football Team
- Projected Contract: 1 year, $3 million
Cam Newton started his season with the Patriots very strong before taking a step back after dealing with a Covid-related absence relatively early on in the season. Despite the struggles as a passer, the former NFL MVP drew rave reviews from Bill Belichick, an endorsement that is sure to keep Cam in league circles for the time being. While his pocket presence and athleticism have regressed, Newton remained a solid threat with the ball in his hands, putting up 14 touchdowns between rushing and receiving versus just 8 through the air. While Cam is extremely unlikely to be a Week 1 starter again in his career, his off-field leadership and connection with Ron Rivera could lead the two to reunite in Washington. If the Football Team commits to Tayler Heinicke or another young quarterback, Newton would excel at showing them how to succeed playing Rivera’s style of football.
Jameis Winston – New Orleans Saints
- Proposed Contract: 1 year minimum + mutually-approved option for $10 million for 2022 season
Can NFL contracts work this way? Genuinely asking. I have never seen a player guaranteed for such an incremental cap increase between two seasons on the same contract. However, if it’s possible, you have to think New Orleans would try to make it work. In this scenario, Jameis can avoid tumultuous scenarios like Houston or Pittsburgh by forgoing a year of backup-level pay to potentially succeed Drew Brees and become the guy for the Saints after one more year.
NFL DRAFT
Trevor Lawrence – Jacksonville Jaguars
- Projected Pick: 1st overall
As a Jets fan, I hope that Urban Meyer decides to buy into the Zach Wilson hype or stay loyal to Ohio State by taking Justin Fields. That’s not happening, though. Trevor Lawrence is on the Mount Rushmore of quarterback prospects throughout the 21st century. While this pick will not be officially penciled in until Draft Night, it certainly already feels like it is.
Justin Fields – New York Jets
- Projected Pick: 2nd overall
Justin Fields outplayed Trevor Lawrence in the CFP semi-final between Ohio State and Clemson, so while Fields has been falling behind Zach Wilson on lists from certain analysts and sports networks, I believe that Fields will have the edge when it comes time for the draft. Fields isn’t a perfect prospect, his main problem is that he struggles with ball placement when hurried or under pressure. However, the former transfer from Georgia has proven himself to be on par with Trevor Lawrence when his composure remains unrattled. The Jets have a lot of speculation regarding what they’ll do at quarterback, but if they come out of this offseason with Fields and Alex Smith, the future will feel pretty bright for New York.
Zach Wilson – Houston Texans
- Projected Pick: 4th overall
How does Zach Wilson end up to the Texans you ask? Stay tuned! For now, let’s talk about the fit. Zach Wilson was carrying the BYU Cougars on his back throughout his final collegiate season and turned in fantastic results when the pressure fell on him to succeed. Now, the guy who’s received comparisons to Patrick Mahomes this offseason can get a chance to do the same to a hopeless NFL franchise. The Texans have regressed in the blink of an eye, just a season removed from reaching the Divisional Round. Wilson gives them a fighter’s chance of turning things around for the better just as quickly, as the quarterback has shown the ability to handle extreme pressure and provide diamonds. Spoiler alert: Wilson won’t be completely alone, either.
Trey Lance – Carolina Panthers
- Projected Pick: 6th overall
Trey Lance is the most physically intriguing prospect in this quarterback class. The North Dakota State quarterback, like Wilson, has concerns about whether or not his success can continue against tougher competition, but Lance has all the tools to turn into one of the best quarterbacks in the league with the right coaching. Matt Rhule and Joe Brady would love a quarterback that can bring a college feel to their offense with his mobility, and Lance has plenty of it. In fact, the Panthers move up from number eight to number six in order to secure their future quarterback, giving up a third and a fifth to the Eagles.
Mac Jones – New England Patriots
- Projected Pick: 11th overall
The “more mobile Tom Brady” gets an opportunity to prove Tua, Jaylen Waddle, and Devonta Smith’s hype over their former teammate by filling in as the long-term replacement for Mr. TB12 himself. Mac Jones has quickly risen up draft boards since his Heisman nomination as teams are realizing that Jones needed a fair share of talent to have the season he did for Alabama in 2020, even with the surrounding offensive talent. With a glaring need for quarterback, Bill Belichick moves up past San Francisco to ensure that they get their guy, parting with a second round pick to the Giants in order to do so.
Kyle Trask – Detroit Lions
- Projected Pick: 41st overall
Kyle Trask is a strong armed pocket passer who could be better equipped than Jared Goff to lead the franchise for the foreseeable future. Goff struggled mightily under adversity, despite receiving a bunch of help from Sean McVay, Todd Gurley, a great offensive line, and a top-notch defense at times throughout his 5-year stint with the Rams, and thus might be on a tight leash from the get-go for Detroit. Trask could spend some time developing under another pocket passer who could still be a great mentor during his time with the Lions and eventually take over at some point during his first couple of seasons.
Kellen Mond – Washington Football Team
- Projected Pick: 83rd overall
Kellen Mond is an extremely raw, yet incredibly physically gifted quarterback prospect coming out of Texas A&M. Training with Cam Newton behind the scenes while Heinicke begins the season as the starter and attempts to build on his impressive performance against Tampa Bay in the playoffs last season; that scenario would be another potentially ideal one for a player who could be just a couple of fundamentals away from piecing it together as a quality passer.
TRADES
Deshaun Watson – Atlanta Falcons
Matt Ryan – Houston Texans
Deshaun Watson to the Falcons makes plenty of sense for both teams. The cap-strapped Falcons trade away Matt Ryan’s hefty deal in a deal that will be tailored like the Goff-Stafford trade earlier this offseason, packaging together the fourth-overall pick, their first 2 picks in 2022 and 2023, and Deion Jones to the Texans for Watson and a mid-round 2022 pick. The Falcons have enough talent to overcome the loss of draft picks and could spend a year in salary cap hell before building up more around Watson in 2022’s free agency.
Sam Darnold – San Francisco 49ers
- Projected Return: 43rd overall pick
With their future quarterback and his mentor in place, Sam Darnold is free to start anew with his NFL career somewhere else. San Francisco makes a lot of sense to me if they are indeed moving on from Jimmy GQ, and even if they’d prefer to let Garoppolo start the 2021 season and re-develop the former third-overall pick. Darnold would be going into a talented offensive supporting cast that features a solid offensive line, a fantastic running game, George Kittle, and a group of promising young wide receivers. To set up a young, coachable quarterback who played college ball in California with an opportunity like this with the 49ers would be a fantastic scenario for both sides, and could warrant a solid pick in return for New York.
STAYING PUT
Aaron Rodgers
- Potential Fits: SF, NE, SEA
Aaron Rodgers’ frustrations with the Green Bay Packers was a hot topic for about a week of the early-offseason chatter. However, it would be unfathomable to see Aaron Rodgers leave Green Bay this season. Though it is looking increasingly likely that the two-time MVP won’t finish his career with the team that drafted him, teams that Rodgers would consider would likely need a year in order to get their roster and cap situations into a desirable spot before giving up the crazy amount of assets needed for a 37 year old quarterback. San Francisco and New England pop out as two locations that could entice Rodgers, the 49ers due to the same reasons mentioned above for Darnold and the Patriots for the opportunity to pair with Bill Belichick. Seattle does have the potential to swing a Wilson-for-Rodgers swap if they really wanted to this offseason, but I don’t see that as likely.
Jimmy Garoppolo
- Potential Fits: NE, HOU, CIN
I was very close to putting Jimmy into the free agency section as a pre-draft cut, but he could stick around as the short-term starter if the 49ers go with a young, cheap contract. San Francisco is another favorite of mine to land Watson, along with Carolina and New York, so the former Patriot could end up a free agent if that’s the route San Fran is able to take. In that case, we could see the former second-rounder re-unite with Bill Belichick in New England, or serve as a bridge quarterback for a team developing their young quarterback. Cincinnati was another location that came to mind if Joe Burrow isn’t available at the start of the season.
Russell Wilson
- Potential Fits: DAL, CHI, LVR
Russell Wilson is legitimately trying to get his way out of Seattle, however he’s another player that might be too difficult for teams to acquire this offseason. The Seahawks organization will fight tooth and nail to keep their Super Bowl-winning quarterback and even if they lose the power struggle, these things can take a while, especially with an organization that is still currently winning and making moves to surround their quarterback with talent. It’s very possible that Watson isn’t dealt either, but the abrupt news of Wilson’s struggles with Seattle have not come with a trade demand or a statement that the situation is unsustainable, so until then, Wilson will be kept out of the fun.
If the Seahawks quarterback was to break free of his current situation before opening week, it would be with a team able to not only compensate Seattle with a treasure trove of draft picks, but likely a starting-caliber quarterback in return. Dallas, Chicago, and Vegas can all fill those needs to varying degrees, especially if Dallas offers Dak Prescott in return.
QUEUESPORTS 