Grading NFL Franchise-Tag Decisions

NFL Free Agency is looming. The 2021 season officially begins on Wednesday, March 17th, with teams and free agents able to begin negotiations within the league’s legal tampering period that starts on Monday, March 15th. Within the week, new contracts will begin to be announced and players and personnel around the league will decide where to spend their foreseeable future.

While the free agency period slowly, yet surely creeps up on us NFL fans, the rumblings of the offseason have already begun with today’s franchise-tag deadline. By the end of each team’s business day today, we will get to see which players are stuck to ride it out with the same teams for at least another year. The tag is far from a guarantee that an NFL player will play on a one-year, non-negotiable deal, and both sides of the negotiations have found a way to protect themselves along the way. So, despite players being tagged by their respective franchise to play there for another season, these scenarios ultimately end up devolving in tricky and personal issues between the representations of said player and/or franchise. For every situation that we see Dak Prescott tagged and eventually break the bank on a huge deal with the team that drafted him, we also see situations like Le’Veon Bell’s holdout with the Steelers or the Panthers’ rescinding Josh Norman’s late into the offseason.

For this article, I’m going to take a look at the franchise-tags handed out in advance of 2021’s free agent frenzy, as well as provide a grade for the decision. More than ever, a high-or-poor grade is not a direct reflection of a player’s talent or worth of value. A team that uses the tag on a disgruntled player isn’t guaranteed a poor grade either, but I will be taking a full look at the situation that lies ahead for each team, and try to calculate the grade relating to how desirable of a situation the player, team, and fans are put in from the decision. With all that said, let’s get to the list:

New Orleans Saints – Marcus Williams, S

  • Grade: D

New Orleans tagged Marcus Williams with what money? Now sitting over $50 million beyond the cap space, the Saints would need to make a miracle happen to sign any free agents this year, yet decided that Williams was worth another $10.5 million on to the books. That’s not to say the standout safety isn’t worth that price tag, but this is not the team that can afford giving out that type of money to anyone that they don’t need to right now. Even if the Saints sign no one and just enter the season with their best 53 players as is like a Madden franchise mode, they are limiting themselves from improving themselves any further than the roster they had last season.

Jacksonville Jaguars – Cam Robinson, OT

  • Grade: C+

The Jaguars were smart to lock down their starting left tackle with the tag with the incoming selection of Trevor Lawrence. However, this move does come with some questions involved as well. With Jacksonville close to the red financially, the cap situation is in dire flux with the addition of another near-$14 million contract on the books. Ironically, that money might have to come right back out of the offensive line if the franchise plans on making moves in free agency this year, as fellow linemen Brandon Linder and A.J. Cann are among the most movable contracts on the team. These concerns wouldn’t be too prominent if Robinson was standout along the line, but Robinson had his fair share of troubles even throughout career-best 2020 season and could quickly regress without quality help in the trenches.

Chicago Bears – Allen Robinson II, WR

  • Grade: B

Jets fans everywhere are very mad at the Bears today. The first potential free agent in a while to imply interest in coming to the Big Apple and talk up New York despite its flaws as a location for a professional athlete to play, Allen Robinson won’t even get the chance to test the market. Plenty of fans and analysts would love to see what the Pro Bowl receiver could do with at least a league-average player throwing him the ball, but will have to wait another year or hope for a tag-and-trade scenario. Despite shaky quarterback play throughout his tenure, the wideout has put up over 3,000 receiving yards and if healthy for 16 games in 2018, would have three-straight 1,000 yard seasons.

The situation is a complicated one for the team. It’s a boost to retain a receiver that was very unlikely to otherwise return, and even if Robinson decides he wants out, Bears GM Ryan Pace could resort to the tag-and-trade, mentioned above. If they keep him, however, that restricts what the general manger can do with already-limited cap space in free agency. The best scenario for both involved is a trade in which Chicago acquires a second-day pick for their decision to tag him, and Robinson ends up on a quarterback-rich team who can afford to pay him way beyond his 1-year, $18 million deal. The complications behind this deal give it a “B,” but there is a lot of potential for different solutions that leave neither side worse for wear.

Washington Football Team – Brandon Scherff, G

  • Grade: B

This was as much as a no-brainer as the decisions that rank higher than this. Brandon Scherff has arguably been the best offensive player on the Washington Football Team since Trent Williams played his last snap for the franchise. The former sixth-overall pick ranks a bit lower on this list of franchise-tag decisions because of the cap hit Washington will take during an offseason in which the salary cap shrunk by about $15 million. An $18 million price tag for a guard, even one of Scherff’s caliber, is an unnecessary cost to take on for the Football Team. For reference, the offensive lineman will be making just under 9% of the team’s entire salary cap (per Spotrac).

New York Jets – Marcus Maye, S

  • Grade: B+

The Jets made the correct decision in franchise-tagging Marcus Maye, their best defensive player last season, The player who effectively mitigated the loss of Jamal Adams deserves to stick around. What bumps this grade down ever so slightly is whatever the Jets are doing to piss off their safeties in negotiations. In a big market like New York, franchise tag drama never seems to end positively, and by using their tag, the franchise will have to anticipate some risk of things turning sour with yet another defensive captain.

Still, I can’t grade this lower either. as the safety was an irreplaceable do-it-all guy for his squad. The best word I can find for this move is “necessary.” That’s nearly 90 tackles, 11 pass deflections, 2 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, 2 picks, and a whole lot of leadership-by-example that won’t be allowed to leave One Jets Drive for at least another year.

Denver Broncos – Justin Simmons, S

  • Grade: A-

Justin Simmons has been the heart and soul of this Broncos’ defense since the “No Fly Zone” days and Von Miller’s soon-following regression. The star safety failed to match his tremendous production in pass defense last year and gave up more touchdowns than you’d like from a star DB (7, up from 1 in 2019 per pro-football-reference), yet still starred for this defense on the way to collecting 5 picks, nearly 100 tackles, and 9 pass deflections. For a player to have those statistics in a year where he is considered to have taken a step back, Simmons getting the tag is a no-brainer for Denver’s front office. And still, the team has a solid amount of cap space to not have to worry about the near-$14 million price tag that the Pro Bowler will come with in the short-term.

New York Giants – Leonard Williams, DL

  • Grade: A

In his first seven games as a Giant, Leonard Williams picked up 0 sacks as he struggled to make a difference for a poor defensive unit. In his past seventeen games, Williams has 12 sacks, including 11.5 in his breakout year this past season. New defensive coordinator Patrick Graham got the most out of his crew, including the former prized trade acquisition from the Jets. A captain despite only joining the squad halfway into 2019, “Big Cat” is due his credit for the defense’s quick turnaround. A stout run defender as well, New York has one of the league’s most complete defensive linemen in football if Williams can maintain his pass rushing success.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Chris Godwin, WR

  • Grade: A

Chris Godwin’s production dipped from his breakout 2019 season where he was the Buccaneers best receiver, and that’s partially due to missing 4 games due to injury. Mike Evans reclaimed the throne in 2020, but the former Penn State wideout looked more like a 1B to Evans’ 1A than a straight-up secondary option for Tom Brady. With Antonio Brown possibly returning and rumblings regarding Tom Brady wanting Odell Beckham Jr. to join him in Tampa, the need wasn’t there at the position, as well as all the money Jason Licht will have to give out this offseason, and there was some concern that Godwin wouldn’t return to the team that drafted him. The news that he was tagged instantly alleviates any additional headaches or concerns regarding the Buccaneers’ offense; the unit will still have its three most important weapons from 2020.

Carolina Panthers – Taylor Moton, OT

  • Grade: A

Giving an A to a team who just tagged an offensive lineman who hasn’t as much made the Pro Bowl in his career might seem silly, but the Panthers nailed it. Without many answers along the offensive line, including at left tackle where there is currently a huge need if Russell Okung indeed leaves in free agency, Carolina needed to retain their only remaining standout offensive lineman before he took Andrew Norwell-money to play somewhere else. Moton is also coming off his best season, only giving up 3 sacks and getting called for a career-low one penalty despite the issues elsewhere along the offensive front. Unless they want Christian McCaffery to get hurt again, they couldn’t afford to let a starter of his quality leave before he even reaches the prime of his career.

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