The first 24 hours of the NFL’s free agency frenzy has lived up to the hype. Dozens of players have already announced deals with new teams despite nothing being official until 4:00pm Wednesday. Yannick Ngakoue, Joe Thuney, and Corey Linsley are among the big names who recently signed big deals to switch cities. While plenty of those players are worth just about every penny that they’ll make over the next few years, some highly-paid free agents struggle in their change of scenery. In a cap-strapped NFL offseason in which teams have less to spend than they did last year, those deals could really hurt a franchise’s ability to succeed in the short term. A few contracts have already raised eyebrows throughout the league, as the inexact science of free agent spending and bidding for players sometimes leaves a player who wasn’t quite a star in his previous tenure all-of-a-sudden getting paid like one. These players have plenty of opportunities to succeed moving forward and prove me wrong, but these are the contracts that teams have agreed to so far that make me scratch my head:
Aaron Jones, RB – Green Bay Packers
- Contract: 4-years, $48-million ($13M signing bonus)
While this deal came in the day before free agency, I figured I would add it in here. I projected Aaron Jones to sign with the Dolphins on a 4-year, $60-million deal in my free agent running back predictions, so why do the Packers get put into this column for re-signing their Pro Bowl running back for $12-million cheaper? Because it validates that A.J. Dillon was a poor selection in the second-round. Dillon looks to be a fine player in this league and showed plenty of potential in his rookie season, enough to nearly raise the poor grade originally given to Green Bay for selecting him. Except, now the back that Dillon was drafted to replace has be re-signed, and will have to step in for the smaller role that Jamaal Williams will leave through his imminent departure. The two running backs will help keep each other fresh, but paying Jones that kind of money is either silly. He’s either a part of a backfield committee with Dillon on a workhorse contract or will be seeing an increased workload while their 2019 second-rounder fails to establish himself not due to talent, but due to opportunity.
The only thing that saves the Packers from a lower grade is the lack of guaranteed money. Outside of the signing bonus, Jones isn’t due guaranteed money and could be released at any point through the contract with minimal risk, which is great, but the situation behind it remains murky.
Grade: C+
Roy Robertson-Harris, DT – Jacksonville Jaguars
Contract: 3-years, $24.4-million ($14M guaranteed)
Definitely not one of the most impactful signings so far, but it was one I was confused with altogether. Roy Robertson-Harris was a fine run stuffer in Chicago, as his impact went beyond individual numbers. However, this still feels like an overpay considering that run-stuffing defensive tackles are far from rare in this league, and that the best one on the market got only $3-million per year more than the guy who has only started 13 career games. Robertson-Harris should prove to be an upgrade on the defensive line over potential first-round bust Taven Bryan, but signed for nearly double of his approximate value on the market.
Grade: C+
Jonnu Smith, TE, Kendrick Bourne, WR, and Nelson Agholor, WR – New England Patriots
Contracts:
Smith – 4-years, $50-million ($31.25M guaranteed)
Bourne – 3-years, $22.5-million ($4.25M signing bonus, $5.25M guaranteed)
Agholor – 2-years, $22-million ($26M total if incentives met, guarantees unknown)
None of these signings, except for maybe Smith, are enough to land the Patriots on this list. However, to pay these three players a total of $94.5-million is egregious. All solid contributors to their offenses in 2020, none are prepared for the role of the primary receiving weapon in an offense. Smith was an impressive red zone threat with Tannehill and has a solid catch rate, but the former Titan has yet to eclipse 500 yards in a season and is now making $50-million. Meanwhile, Bourne and Agholor are being paid the number-one-and-two options on the team despite limited skillsets. The former 49er projects to be a versatile athletic threat like Smith, while Agholor’s solid recovery season has helped him draw the eye of a team in need of a field-stretching weapon. All three play a solid role for a team that severely needs contributors and depth for their pass catching positions, but these highly-paid players might not be up for the leading roles they might be placed in.
Grade: C
Bud Dupree, OLB – Tenneessee Titans
- Contract: 5-years, $85-million ($35M guaranteed)
The Titans said goodbye to a large portion of their targets in the passing game last year. Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith, and Adam Humphries are gone, likely to be followed by Anthony Firkser. In their place, Bud Dupree. Not that Tennessee didn’t need help off the edge, something they failed to adequately find in Vic Beasley or even Jadeveon Clowney through 2020. Dupree, however, is receiving a large chunk of Tennessee’s freed up space. The former Steeler improved his production over the past couple years and has looked like an athletic threat off the edge, but signing a player who tore his ACL and has had another season-ending injury already within his six year career. Expecting Dupree to live up to the size and length of this contract could set the team up for disaster over the early years of the deal, especially with the likes of A.J. Brown and Jeffery Simmons preparing to leave their rookie deals in the next couple years.
Grade: C-
Cameron Erving, OL and Pat Elflein, G – Carolina Panthers
Contracts:
Erving: 2-years, $10-million ($8M guaranteed)
Elflein: 3-years, $13.5-million ($6M guaranteed)
Alone, these aren’t back-breaking moves by any means for the Panthers. Neither player is costing anyone a job if they don’t pan out. However, it shows a lack of organizational competence to rush to middling replacements along the offensive line after Christian McCaffery’s injury-prone season and Carolina’s heavily-rumored pursuit of a franchise signal-caller this offseason. While teams are entering sweepstakes for stars like Joe Thuney, Trent Williams, and Corey Linsley, it feels like the Panthers tapped out of the running too soon. This entire point is moot if the team continues their pursuit on the top free agent offensive linemen, but to add two players that were moderately impressive as fill-ins for starters, and call it a day after a season with noticeable issues along the offensive front and an offseason choc-full of star talent at the position is simply not good roster management.
Grade: D
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