The NFL’s new league year is officially underway! Trades that have been reported over the past few months are now official and 2021’s free agent frenzy has already seen plenty of action occur since the March 15th legal tampering period began. As exciting as it is to see all the signings happen in such short notice, but it did throw a wrench in my plans to project the top free agents at every position group and forecast where I believe that they’d be playing football for the next few years. Top free agents like Trent Williams, Bud Dupree, and Joe Thuney put pen to paper before I could even project a landing spot for them. In fact, 21 of the top 25 free agents available this offseason, per NFL.com, are off the market.
Still, some fascinating talent remains on the board, especially at wide receiver and cornerback. Some competitive teams still have some money to work with, including the Colts and Dolphins, as well as some rebuilding squads like those that reside in Jacksonville and New York. With money to be spent, these unemployed difference-makers will soon have a lot more clarity as to what the continuation of their respective NFL careers might look like. Until then, I will join these players in speculating where some of their next contracts will be signed, starting with…
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, New York Jets
- Original Contract: 3-years, $43.5-million ($27M guaranteed)
With all the talk about replacing Jamison Crowder before his contract-year in 2021, the Jets could go from one prized free agent slot receiver right to another. JuJu Smith-Schuster is a productive 1B receiver who struggled with all eyes on him in a mediocre Steelers offense throughout 2020, but continued to be a reliable threat despite some tough matchups and only had two games with under four receptions. Regardless of who mans the quarterback position in New York this upcoming season, a receiving corps of Denzel Mims, Corey Davis, and JuJu Smith-Schuster is an enviable one and sets up a good situation for the team’s future passer to be in.
Adoree’ Jackson, CB – New York Jets
- Projected Contract: 3-years, $39-million ($18M guaranteed)
Tennessee surprised everyone by releasing their 2017 first-rounder Adoree’ Jackson this offseason. The steadily improving cornerback has dealt with injuries that have caused him to miss 18 games over the past two seasons and took a step back when on the field in 2020, allowing a 145.8 passer rating when targeted over the three games he played this past year. Still, the potential that the 25-year old is through the roof. A cornerback-needy team with some money to their name likely wouldn’t hesitate to take a flyer on the USC product. The Jets fit that criteria, and could specifically use an outside cornerback who can run with some of the speedier receivers in the league.
Justin Houston, DE – Denver Broncos
- Projected Contract: 3-years, $36-million ($27M guaranteed)
After picking up 19 sacks in two seasons with Indianapolis, Justin Houston is able to land a highly-guaranteed contract to take him into his mid-30s. The Broncos remain likely to replace Von Miller this offseason, and could look to another 2011-draft pick to take his spot. Houston isn’t going to take over a game at 32, but the veteran edge rusher is one of the most steady players off the edge throughout the whole league and maintain a potent pass rush between Bradley Chubb and Houston.
Anthony Harris, S – Dallas Cowboys
- Projected Contract: 4-years, $36-million ($16M guaranteed)
A franchise tag-recipient just a year ago, Anthony Harris hasn’t been mentioned among the top free agents in this class so far. The former Viking had some issues in coverage over the latter half of 2020 and saw his interceptions drop from 6 to 0 in just one year. Still, part of the drop in his interception numbers was due to his team playing him closer to the line of scrimmage, and he did see his tackles skyrocket from 60 to 104. A similar style of player to now-former Cowboys safety Xavier Woods with some more potential in coverage, Dallas could find a potential improvement at a reasonable price.
Mitchell Schwartz, OT, Carolina Panthers
- Projected Contract: 2-years, $35-million ($22.5M guaranteed)
Potentially leaving room in case the Texans begin making progress in trading Deshaun Watson, the Panthers haven’t really done much this free agency. Signing Haason Reddick was a solid value move for the defense, but the offensive additions of Cam Erving and Pat Elflein don’t necessarily impress. Here’s an offensive lineman that has more of a positive impact along Carolina’s rebuilt offensive line. Mitchell Schwartz is likely to be healthy in time for the 2021 season and impressed with his durability and availability for Kansas City before that. The starting offensive tackle is valuable to Carolina even if the team doesn’t land a Watson or another top quarterback this offseason, as Christian McCaffery’s injury-plagued 2020 might be enough to entice the franchise to make a splash signing for their offensive front.
Kenny Golladay, WR – New York Giants
- Projected Contract: 2-years, $32-million ($20M guaranteed)
The best receiver on the market remains available, and rumors are beginning to circulate that the former Detroit Lion might not command as much money on the market as he thought. The Giants have some cap to spend, and a glaring need for patch catchers to help Daniel Jones continue his progression as an NFL quarterback. Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard are fine players at the position, but the Duke product may be unable to lift the passing game on his own for now. Giving their young passer a star weapon who has shown that he can come down with some tough catches and make a difference for an offensive attack, as evidenced by his league-leading 11 receiving touchdowns in his last fully healthy season, 2019. He might be interested in testing the market again in the near future and see if he can break the bank the next time, so Golladay’s best situation might be signing a short-term deal with New York and continuing to act as the number one guy for a team who’s going to want to get him the ball.
David Andrews, C – Miami Dolphins
- Projected Contract: 3-years, $31.5-million ($20M guaranteed)
The uncharacteristic spending spree that Bill Belichick was on over the past few days comes at a cost, namely the Patriots’ offensive line will be undergoing some changes. With Ted Karras under contract for New England, David Andrews might have to find a starting center role elsewhere. There have been reports linking the longtime Patriot to a former New England coach. Miami could use some reinforcements along their interior offensive front even after the Matt Skura signing, and have shown an affinity for players that have experienced the culture that Flores and Andrews are familiar with. If it’s not New England, I believe that the Dolphins are the front-runners in the sweepstakes for the Georgia product, who played at a high level in 2020 upon returning from blood clots in his lungs.
Chris Carson, RB – San Francisco 49ers
- Projected Contract: 2-years, $21-million ($10M guaranteed)
I’m sticking true to my pre-free agency prediction, though I am reducing the length of the contract upon seeing the running back market be limited to shorter-term deals. I see Chris Carson as an intriguing fit in San Francisco’s backfield after collecting over 2,000 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns with the Seahawks. The team is likely losing Tevin Coleman and Jerick McKinnon to the open market, and promising young running back Jeff Wilson is a restricted free agent. With an improved offensive line to run behind after the addition of Alex Mack, the 49ers could use a spry running back who’s usage has been managed carefully during his first three years as a starter.
Richard Sherman, CB – Los Angeles Chargers
- Projected Contract: 1-year, $14-million ($10M guaranteed)
Richard Sherman is in the twilight of his career, but we’ve already seen the future Hall of Famer quiet the doubters by continuing his dominant play through a three-year contract in San Francisco and could have some solid performances ahead of him as a quality starter. With Casey Hayward released, Brandon Staley could decide on a short-term option that can mentor this team’s young secondary during his time in Los Angeles. Health could be a concern, as Sherman has missed 21 games over his past four seasons, but he remains more than worth the price tag on a one-year deal.
Desmond King II, S/CB – Kansas City Chiefs
- Projected Contract: 1-year, $7.5-million ($5M guaranteed)
Desmond King was traded from the Chargers to the Titans in exchange for just a sixth-round pick. The former First-Team All-Pro has taken a step back since his fantastic start to his NFL career, but remains more serviceable than given credit for so far this offseason. King even started to improve his play during his time with Tennessee and even scored a defensive touchdown during his nine-game stint with his second squad. Seemingly forgotten in the free agent mix, the Chiefs might be able to reinforce their secondary at a solid price. L’Jarius Sneed and Charvarius Ward contributed to an impressive season for the Chiefs pass defense, but getting a versatile slot defender in the mold of Kendall Fuller allows Steve Spagnuolo to do more with his secondary, especially with star defensive chess piece Tyrann Mathieu.
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