2021 NFL Mock Draft (3/18)

1. Jacksonville Jaguars – Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson

Does anyone expect the Jaguars to take anyone else at this point? Trevor Lawrence is among the top quarterback prospects this side of John Elway’s drafting, along with the Manning brothers and Andrew Luck. The former national champion has everything a team would want in a quarterback prospect: arm talent, mechanics, leadership, and college production. The combination of traits possessed by Lawrence makes him a no-brainer as the first-overall pick of the draft.

2. New York Jets – Zach Wilson, QB, BYU

The rumblings surrounding Zach Wilson keep getting stronger, and it sounds like most teams prefer the BYU prospect over Justin Fields at this spot. If the Jets go with Wilson, they will be getting an NFL-ready passer that led a middling college roster to a one-loss season and a bowl win over UCF. The quarterback’s live arm has impressed scouts with some of the throws he’s shown that he can make, but he also has some makeup concerns regarding his motivation for the game due to a cushy upbringing, which could mean either absolutely nothing or absolutely everything at the next level. However, Adam Schefter reported before the end of the NFL season that a source stated that the former Cougar has “special intangibles,” so those concerns shouldn’t weigh him down like it did Josh Rosen in 2018.

3. Miami Dolphins – Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon

Penei Sewell is an extremely exciting prospect at offensive tackle. While some draft analysts have been putting Northwestern tackle Rashawn Slater above the Oregon product, Sewell has the highest ceiling of any offensive lineman in this draft. A former Heisman vote-receiver, he will be the next Joe Thomas in my book as soon as he adds a little more bulk to his frame and polish to his footwork. A team like Miami would make full use of the tackle’s freakish athleticism on screens and pitches, where he can beat defenders to the point of attack.

4. Atlanta Falcons – Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State

The same concerns that are being mentioned regarding Justin Fields are the same issues that were mentioned about Deshaun Watson when he was entering the 2017 NFL Draft. Watson went on to do quite well in fixing the issues regarding his progressions, field vision, and footwork, and paves the way for Fields to remain a top pick in the draft. Ryan Tannehill was another quarterback in a similar spot, and even later in his career than Fields, and new Atlanta head coach Arthur Smith got the most out of him. While Fields could very well end up re-entering the conversation to be picked second-overall by the Jets, but this is a much better fit for him. Smith and Matt Ryan offer the promising quarterback a pair of stellar mentors to learn from upon entering the league.

5. Cincinnati Bengals – Kyle Pitts, WR/TE, Florida

The Bengals would have loved to pair a prime A.J. Green with Joe Burrow, but you know what they say about timing. Green’s successful tenure in Cincinnati is likely over as he hits free agency, leaving behind some fantastic memories and a hole to fill in the team’s receiving corps. Kyle Pitts, like the Georgia product, is a big-play threat with a big frame that has been compared to Calvin Johnson Jr. throughout their respective pre-draft process. With about 18-yards-per-catch and 1.5-touchdowns-per-game in his final season with the Gators, Pitts could offer the Bengals a near-seamless transition between one star pass catcher to another.

6. Philadelphia Eagles – Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU

It might seem redundant for the Eagles to go with a first-round receiver for the second year in a row, but Ja’Marr Chase could help Jalen Reagor improve on a tough rookie campaign by taking away some of the attention surrounding him. The wideout is likely the most NFL-ready player at his position, producing some great stats against highly regarded SEC cornerbacks through the entirety of 2019, to the tune of 84 catches, 1,780 receiving yards, and 20 touchdowns. Polished, productive, and athletic, Chase gives Jalen Hurts a go-to target from day one.

7. Detroit Lions – Devonta Smith, WR, Alabama

With Matt Stafford gone, the Lions might be tempted to land a replacement if Trey Lance and/or Mac Jones is still available at this point. However, the team also lost standout receivers Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones to free agency, leaving T.J. Hockensen and D’Andre Swift as the biggest weapons on this offense at this point. Here’s another receiver who likely starts his NFL career as a bona-fide number-one target. Devonta Smith might come with some size issues, but he was undoubtedly the best wide receiver to play college football in 2020, and was arguably the best overall player in the nation with a Heisman Trophy to back that claim up. Whether or not Jared Goff is long for Detroit, it wouldn’t hurt to put their new quarterback in a position to succeed as the 2021 starter.

8. Carolina Panthers – Mac Jones, QB, Alabama

Given the reported urgency from Carolina to upgrade from Teddy Bridgewater, the franchise might elect to go with the more polished one of the remaining quarterbacks. Whereas Trey Lance is raw and ripe with physical talent, Mac Jones comes with a lower ceiling, but is a better bet to take over the franchise from day one. Completing nearly 80% of passes in a season is an impressive feat regardless of the supporting cast that Jones was blessed with. The Heisman trophy candidate has been heavily linked to the Panthers since his meteoric rise up the draft boards. Mike Tannenbaum even declared that the eighth-overall pick might just be his floor.

9. Denver Broncos – Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina

This is about the time of the draft in which a team makes a mock draft-ending move, and I’m expecting the Broncos to do something unexpected here at ninth-overall. If the team decides against, or just can’t trade down, I could see Denver taking a swing at a rising cornerback. Caleb Farley and Patrick Surtain II are very much in the mix, but Horn’s combination of length, athleticism, footwork, and ball skills is sure to entrance a team looking for their next shutdown cornerback into taking him around or above the other top cornerback prospects in the draft.

10. Dallas Cowboys – Rashawn Slater, OT/G, Northwestern

In my last mock draft, I had the Chargers trading up to the ninth-overall pick to steal Rashawn Slater from the Cowboys. As an athletic, versatile, and polished blocker, the Northwestern product has all of the traits that Dallas needs in order to patch up their offensive line. The team’s offensive line has four standouts along the line when healthy, but availability has been an issue as of late. Slater can play center between Connor Williams and Zack Martin before eventually taking over the aging Tyron Smith at left tackle.

11. Chicago Bears (from NYG) – Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State

CHI receives: 11th overall pick, 2022 fifth-round pick

NYG receives: 20th overall pick, 84th overall pick, 165th overall pick, 2022 second-round pick

I was guilty of a couple of Madden-esque trades during my last mock draft and have been trying my best to minimize players being moved on draft day. Upon the reports of the Bears looking to move Kyle Fuller, however, I just had to make a theoretical trade exploring what a move would look like. Fuller is a bit pricey, but has turned into a star in Chicago’s secondary and would fill a big need for the Giants. Moving up nine picks in the first-round and turning a 2021 fifth-rounder into a 2022 fourth-round pick seems like a solid return for the veteran cornerback and would allow Chicago to move forward with the quarterback of their future.

Trey Lance would have a pair of fine mentors to sit behind for year one in Nick Foles and Andy Dalton. The former North Dakota State Bison’s ceiling, in my opinion, exceeds Kyler Murray’s as a dual-threat superstar under center. With a quarterback of his own choosing, Matt Nagy could return to doing damage to opposing defenses as an offensive guru. And if Lance is brought up correctly, there’s not much the Bears won’t be able to run offensively.

*UPDATE: Fuller was cut by the Bears, so I re-worked the contract to account for the release and balance the trades out again. The Bears avoid sacrificing another first-rounder to the Giants in order to move up, but do so by parting with a 2021-third and a 2022-second.*

12. San Francisco 49ers – Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech

After losing Richard Sherman and K’Waun Williams to free agency, the 49ers could use another defensive back to work with the recently re-signed Jason Verrett and Emmanuel Mosely. Caleb Farley’s college injuries and 2020 opt-out are a couple knacks against the former Hokie, but might have the best overall instincts of all the defensive backs in the draft. There might be a learning curve, as Farley hasn’t even played college football since the waning weeks of the 2019 season, though he did have more plays on the ball (19 pass deflections and 6 picks) than games (23 played throughout college). If any cornerback can return to speed despite the year off, the 49ers will soon have a shutdown cornerback.

13. New England Patriots (from LAC) – Kwity Paye, Edge/DL, Michigan

NE receives: 13th overall pick, 241st overall pick

LAC receives: 15th overall pick, 110th overall pick

Kwity Paye seems like the type of prospect that Bill Belichick would be enamored with. Athletic, productive in college, and possessing a non-stop motor, the Michigan product is rising up draft boards and could go earlier than this as his name is rising up draft boards. New England could pair him with Matt Judon off the edge or join Davon Godcheaux and Henry Anderson along the team’s retooled offensive line, as the versatile defender has the necessary size and explosiveness off the snap to excel anywhere along the line of scrimmage. Averaging more than a TFL per game in his final two college seasons, Paye has all the tools to wreak similar havoc at the next level, so the Patriots jump the lineman-needy Vikings to make the selection.

14. Minnesota Vikings – Alijah Vera-Tucker, G/OT, USC

After releasing Riley Reiff, Minnesota must find a replacement along the offensive line in an attempt to maintain the progress that the unit showed last year. Alijah Vera-Tucker is another intriguing and athletic prospect for the Vikings to add to their front, except he also comes with a fair amount of polish to his game. Bryan O’Neil, Ezra Cleveland, and Vera-Tucker would make a very intriguing pairing in the trenches for years to come, as all three come with the versatility to play tackle and guard, meaning the Vikings can mix-and-match their O-line and still get efficient play regardless of where their guys line up. So whether Vera-Tucker could be a tackle or is limited to guard, the franchise is astonishingly equipped to handle that question.

15. Los Angeles Chargers (from NE) – Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama

Even with their recent spending spree on offensive linemen, I strongly considered giving the Chargers Alijah Vera-Tucker at 13. With the deal between Los Angeles and New England in place, though, that option is no longer available. Patrick Surtain II is among the best players available regardless of position at this point and could instantly mitigate the damage done on this team’s secondary through losing Casey Hayward and Rayshawn Jenkins. The son of a former NFL cornerback, Surtain comes with the necessary size, technique, and polish, as well as a high level of competition in the SEC. There are some concerns about his long-speed, but those concerns would absolutely be reduced with the help of Derwin James and Nasir Adderley roaming in the same secondary next season.

16. Arizona Cardinals – Asante Samuel Jr., CB, Florida State

With the top three cornerbacks in the draft class gone, the Cardinals take a flyer on the undersized, but feisty cornerback from Florida State to replace Patrick Peterson in the secondary. Asante Samuel Jr., also the son of a former professional defensive back, arguably has the best instincts of any corner in this draft. The lack of an ideal build drops him into the second tier of cornerbacks for most draft analysts, but we’ve seen similarly-sized cornerbacks like Denzel Ward and Casey Heyward succeed on the outside in the NFL. If he proves that he can hold up to the increased physicality at the next level, the Cardinals are getting a steal in the form of a former Seminole who has 20 pass deflections, 6 picks, and 2 fumble recoveries over the course of his past 20 games.

17. Las Vegas Raiders – Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech

The top offensive linemen are off the board, but they could still grab the lineman with the highest ceiling at the tackle position, save for Penei Sewell. Christian Darrisaw might need some time to get his frame to an NFL-ready level, but the Virginia Tech product has the desired technique and athleticism to become a franchise’s anchor on the line. After the offensive line exodus that has taken place over the past couple of weeks for the Raiders, a guy like Darrisaw entering a club that has experience developing offensive line talent that needs time to reach NFL-readiness. Kolton Miller was a highly-critiqued draft pick for the at-the-time Oakland Raiders. Three years and 46 starts later, the UCLA product was praised as a contributing part of the team’s stellar offensive line, and a similar future can be seen for the former Hokie if he lands in Vegas.

18. New York Giants (from MIA) – Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama

NYG receives: 18th overall pick

MIA receives: 20th overall pick, 165th overall pick, 2022 seventh-round pick

The Giants jump back ahead of their rivals in order to secure a dynamic threat for Daniel Jones. Jaylen Waddle is a burner who comes into the league after recording 120-yard games in his last four fully-healthy games for Alabama and would add a spark to an offense that lacked one without Saquon Barkley in 2020. The Alabama product’s speed and ability to create separation could help the team’s quarterback gain confidence, as the receiver will be capable of making something happen in the event of some errant throws over the course of Jones’ development.

19. Washington Football Team – Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State

Even with Waddle off the board, the Football Team might be enticed to take a receiver like Kadarius Toney or Rashod Bateman either now or after a trade down. However, with a talented linebacker like Micah Parsons available this late into the first, Washington could be enticed to strengthen their already-enviable front seven. Parsons has some character concerns surrounding him, largely due to some disturbing hazing allegations that came to light during the linebacker’s college career. If he can find the right locker room for a new beginning as an NFL athlete and overcome the antics that also helped drop former Nittany Lion Yetur Gross-Matos into the second round last year, the standout linebacker can give this defense a high-value selection and a day one standout at the linebacker spot.

20. Miami Dolphins (from CHI thru NYG) – Zaven Collins, LB/Edge, Tulsa

I’m not sure if there’s a consensus best edge rusher or linebacker in this draft class, as there have been no reports about a specific defender differentiating himself from the pack in terms of projections. Zaven Collins, however, has a stake in not only that conversation, but as the most promising off-ball linebacker in the draft. The versatile linebacker out of Tulsa has football fans such as myself salivating over what the former Golden Hurricane star can do. If teams catch on to the small-school prospect and what he can do for them, he might not make it this far.

I doubt Miami would complain, however. The defense will look different next season with Kyle Van Noy and Shaq Lawson gone. Collins would help mitigate the loss of the two starters, as he’s a perfect fit for the combo-role of off-ball looks and aggression off the edge that both of the former Dolphins defenders played under Brian Flores last season. With just a little refinement needed, the star linebacker is a guy with no glaring weakness in his skillset, yet retains exciting potential.

21. Indianapolis Colts – Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida

Drawing comparisons to the recently parted-with T.Y. Hilton, Kadarius Toney is a burner at the wide receiver position. Drawing buzz for his unique running style that helps him create separation beyond simply the route he’s running, the former Florida Gator would form a solid young duo of wideouts along with 2020 rookie Michael Pittman. He offers potential as a gadget player as well as a red zone threat, as evidenced by his nearly-2:1 catch-to-rush ratio and his 11 total touchdowns for his team this past season.

22. Tennessee Titans – Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota

The money freed up by Tennesse’s front office to sign Bud Dupree to a 5-year, $82.5-million deal came from the decision to let Jonnu Smith, Corey Davis, and Adam Humphries walk in free agency after substantial roles with the team in 2020. Rashod Bateman would be a quality replacement in the slot for Humphries, providing a solid option who can create separation in close spaces and consistently make contested catches. Ryan Tannehill would largely benefit from a chain-moving talent that could occasionally allow A.J. Brown and Derrick Henry to operate with less attention paid to them by opposing defenses.

23. Atlanta Falcons (from NYJ) – Najee Harris, RB, Alabama

ATL receives: 23rd overall pick, 155th overall pick

NYJ receives: 35th overall pick, 68th overall pick, 2022 sixth-round pick

The Falcons trade up above the Steelers to get their replacement for Todd Gurley. Najee Harris doesn’t have the same explosion Gurley did when he was entering the draft, but the Heisman Trophy finalist has a similar build, runs extremely hard and has a nose for the end zone, as evidenced by his 50 total touchdowns over his final two seasons with the Crimson Tide. He has a bit of mileage on him already, with over 700 touches during his college career, but still projects to have better longevity than the guy he’s replacing in Atlanta.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers – Alex Leatherwood, G/OT, Alabama

Another versatile fit along the line for a team who has seen a fair share of talent leave after the 2020 season, Alex Leatherwood is similar to Slater and Vera-Tucker in strengths and weaknesses. All three linemen are athletically-gifted offensive linemen who are technically-sound and likely day one starters on the offensive front, but receive concerns about the size of their frame and the resulting lack of strength that comes from it. Leatherwood might be the least likely to succeed at the tackle position. Still, after losing Matt Feiler and Maurkice Pouncey this offseason, the interior offensive line is currently where Pittsburgh is suffering. The Alabama product would be able to contribute plenty in both passing protection and run blocking if he can add a little more to his bulk without taking away from his mobility.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars – Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame

The Jaguars could stand to improve their front seven. Losing Telvin Smith, Calais Campbell, and Yannick Ngakoue over the past couple seasons has softened Jacksonville’s defense beyond the Jalen Ramsey trade. Here’s a direct replacement for one of those players, Smith. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah is the most talented linebacker in coverage of this draft class. The speedy linebacker is a bit of a tweener between safety and linebacker, but as long as Jacksonville can line up Myles Jack alongside the former Notre Dame defender will be at home as an extra cover-man on the field who can still make his fair share of plays in the box.

26. Cleveland Browns – Gregory Rousseau, Edge/DL, Miami

Olivier Vernon ruptured his Achilles late in the season for the Browns, raising concerns for the long-term outlook of the defensive end position opposite of Myles Garrett. Greg Rousseau has gotten lost in the mix of the intriguing defensive prospects that seemingly fail to separate from one another. Still, the former Hurricane arguably put up the best season of any defender on this list in his only season of college football. In 2019, Rousseau ended up with 15.5 sacks as a redshirt freshman and after opting out of 2020, the defensive lineman’s only extended body of work might not be enough to make him the first defender off the board, but I’d have to think the Browns run to the podium in the event that he’s still on the board at 26.

27. Baltimore Ravens – Jaelan Phillips, Edge, Miami

Just one pick after the former Miami superstar is the edge rusher that took his place, and his number 15, on the Hurricanes’ defense. Jaelan Phillips put up similarly stellar numbers during his final college season, accumulating 8 sacks and 15.5 total tackles for a loss. He impressed teams with his ability to apply pressure to both the passing and running games throughout 2020, and could end up in the first round despite injury concerns that forced him to medically retire from UCLA in 2018. After losing Matthew Judon in free agency, the Ravens need someone like Phillips, who can consistently make his presence known in the backfield.

28. New Orleans Saints – Jevon Holland, S, Oregon

Marcus Williams was franchised, which help prevents the Saints’ secondary from falling apart. However, there are needs across the team’s defensive backfield that threaten to deter the progress that this unit has made over recent years. One of those needs is at the other safety position, as Malcolm Jenkins isn’t the same player he once was and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson looks like he’s moving into the slot full-time. Jevon Holland could prove to be the right guy to piece together this unit. Despite forgoing the 2020 season, the Oregon junior played 27 games between his freshman and sophomore year and looked the part of a technically sound, athletically gifted safety prospect. Like Farley, Rousseau, and the other players who missed this past year, Holland really just has to prove that he can shake off the rust in order to prove the Saints smart for disregarding the defensive back’s decision to opt out.

29. Green Bay Packers – Tyson Campbell, CB, Georgia

The Georgia product needs a little more refinement to his technique and situational awareness when compared to the four cornerbacks above him in this mock draft, but his size, athleticism, and aggression makes him an intriguing fit in any defensive scheme. The Packers cornerback position, save for Jaire Alexander, wasn’t a great unit. The 6’2″ cornerback gives the secondary another big talent to roam the defensive backfield alongside Alexander, Darnell Savage, and Adrian Amos, one who’s adept at making plays on the ball not only on deep passes, but in shorter-yardage situations as well.

30. Cincinnati Bengals (from BUF) – Jalen Mayfield, OT, Michigan

Joe Burrow’s 7.3% sack rate cannot persist if the Bengals hope to get the most out of their first-overall pick. Only Jonah Williams and Trey Hopkins held PFF grades of over 60 in pass protection, leaving the rest of the linemen as potential liabilities for the franchise quarterback moving forward. Trading ahead of the tackle-needy Chiefs allows the Bengals to get a guy who was capable of holding his own against Chase Young in college. Jalen Mayfield is considered to be a little raw, but showed tremendous improvement within the two games he played during 2020. The Wolverine’s tackle, like Christian Darrisaw, should add a little weight before seeing NFL action, but has a similarly high ceiling due to his size, power, and athleticism at the tackle position.

31. Kansas City Chiefs – Jackson Carman, G/OT, Clemson

Between Jackson Carman and Joe Thuney, the Chiefs would have the left side of their offensive line locked down for years to come. Like the recently-signed Thuney was coming out of college, Carman is a powerful and versatile prospect that can play seemingly any blocking position. His best fit might be at guard, though, as the blindside protector for Trevor Lawrence had some issues with speedy edge rushers. At 6’5″ and 345 pounds, the Clemson product has NFL-ready size and promises to be a mauler in the running game.

32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama

The Buccaneers have seemingly been able to re-sign everyone that they’ve wanted so far, but might not be able to do the same for now-free agent Ndamukong Suh. With very few needs across the roster, though, the team can find a tit-for-tat replacement for the veteran offensive lineman. Christian Barmore was a little streaky in college, but he was one of the best defenders in the nation when he turned things up during his 2020 season for the Crimson Tide, putting up 8 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, and 3 pass deflections over 11 games. Tampa Bay could benefit from a standout interior rusher keeping Vita Vea, Jason Pierre-Paul, and Shaq Barrett from acquiring any extra attention.